Financial Analysis, February 07 – February 18, 2022

Feb 20, 2022

Market Overview




The World


Are we going to war?

All the information looks very bad.

If NATO is arrogant and aggressive, if Ukraine is deliberately pushed into war with the Russians, in order to expand to the East, while the Slavic peoples are dying, then the Russians have no choice but to respond to force by force.

History teaches us how sick and crazy attacks on Russia end.

History is the teacher of life.

The Crusaders forgot that.




The barons of capitalism did not exist in 1993, when Warren Buffett was the richest and had 8 billion dollars, today the barons have 30 times of his value at the time.



The stock market bubble has blown, it is only a matter of time before it bursts.



The real estate price bubble has risen since 2007, when the mortgage crisis erupted, by over 150%.



Prices rose by a record 7.5% in January 2022, the highest level since February 1982.



US trade deficit in 2021 reached a record high of -859 billion dollars or increased by 27%



Trade deficit by country.





The money supply of M2 increased at the beginning of 2022 by 12%, while inflation in January was 7.5%.

With the growth of the money supply and the announcement of the increase in interest rates, the inflamed inflation cannot be curbed.

A question for the big experts from the Fed, if there was no economic recovery with zero and negative interest rates, how will the economies recover with rising interest rates?

The bond market is just as dangerous as a stock market bubble.




Money supply M3 in 2022 increased by 7%, while in January inflation was 5.1%.



The investment fever that gripped the Russians in 2021, when the number of brokerage accounts on the stock exchange exceeded 17 million and the number of regular traders reached 2 million, led to a new renaissance of the financial pyramid market.



The IMF lowered China’s economic growth rate in 2022 to 4.8%.

The growth rate in 2021 was – 8.1%.

Over 130 million empty houses and mortgage debts of 5,000 billion dollars.



Sultan Erdogan is fighting high inflation by cutting interest rates. The central bank cut the 2-week interest rate to 14%, as inflation jumped from 36% to 49% in January, meaning real interest rates fell to minus 35%. The consequences of such a crazy decision will be shown on the market very soon.



Producer prices rose 24.2%, the largest increase since 1949.



The savers lost a lot of money in 2021, but they will lose even more in 2022.



The Ministry of Finance stated that there are more and more credit frauds, which operate by intermediaries offering safe and cheap loans but asking clients to pay money in advance.

Advice to all those who are looking for loans, pay intermediaries a commission when they finish the job and when the money is on your account.




DOWJ – 34,019

DAX – 15,039

S&P – 4,344

NASDAQ – 13,548


The stock price bubble is still pumping.



A historical reminder of the fall of the Dow Jones in 1929 by 90%. History is repeating.





Gold falling to – $ 1897.

The development of the price of gold since the liberalization in 1973.



Gold is significantly underestimated, as in 1999, when we were comparing the price of gold with all other economic parameters, therefore I expect a big jump in the near future.



Despite constant speculation with gold futures and deliberate falling by stock market speculators, gold is still growing.




Silver slight increase – $ 23.95 / ounce.

Development of the silver bar.




Rising to a record $ 93.67 / barrel.



Rising dollar – 1.1320


Russian ruble

In growth against the euro – 87.5569

In growth against the dollar – 77.3491




The crypto market had a capitalization of 880 billion dollars at the beginning of 2021 and grew to 2,200 billion dollars at the end of the year.


Bitcoin today at – $ 38,265

Ethereum in decline – $ 2,328


Kazakhstan consumed almost 20% of the world’s energy consumption for bitcoin mining. They endangered the supply of electricity to the citizens, so at the beginning of January 2022, the Government abolished the supply of electricity to mining.

With the outbreak of civil unrest in Kazakhstan, the Internet was abolished.


The Central Bank of the Russian Federation appeared before the Government with a proposal to ban cryptocurrencies, like China, due to high electricity consumption and large and harmful speculations.


Kosovo was hit by mining for a short time but quickly ran out of electricity.

Georgia is now under attack.


Austria from 01.03.2022. introduces taxation of profits in cryptocurrency trading with 27.5%.



Branko Dragaš

Investment banker


Market Overview