Financial Analysis, March 08 – March 18, 2022

Mar 18, 2022

Market Overview




The World


Rising commodity prices April 2020 – February 2022:



Prices continue to rise.



Global grain trade:



Every recession is preceded by a jump in energy prices.



Industrial metal prices are rising.





The United States has 100 nuclear reactors and 20% depends on uranium imports from Russia.

The US economy is slowing down.



Increasing the price of gasoline by 1 cent costs the American economy – 1.4 billion dollars.





The ratio of loans and deposits, lending activities are drastically declining, because the risks are huge.



The dollar is ending its existence and must be replaced by a new currency that will be pegged to gold.

How much gold does the US have? Officially 8,000 tons, but that’s a big question mark.

The dollar has almost lost its value in relation to gold since 1971.



Measured by the methodology for calculating inflation from 1982, today the real inflation is at 19%, while it is officially 7.5%.



Money supply growth M2 in the period 1971-2022 – 7% annually.



How does the Fed intend to stop double-digit inflation of 19%?


They decided to increase the interest rate by 0.25% and to be in the range of 0.50%.

They also intend to raise the interest rate six times, until they reach a rate of 1.9%.

Will an increased interest rate reduce double-digit inflation?

It won’t.

What will happen in the coming months?

Borrowing is becoming more expensive, the over-indebted state, companies and citizens cannot repay more expensive loans, the illiquidity of the system is growing, economic activity is falling, employees are being laid off, unemployment is rising, poverty is rising, prices are rising, and social conflicts are growing.

Here is how interest rates moved in the previous period from 1979-2022:



The economic growth rate from 1997 to 2021 fell by a third.

The higher the debt, the lower the economic growth rates.





Europe’s dependence on Russian gas:



Industrial production at the beginning of the year fell 1.3%.




Russia has the largest gas reserves in the amount of 75,000 billion dollars.



European countries that depend on Russian gas:



Gold has risen 38 times against the ruble since 2000.



Russia has 40% of the world’s uranium production.

Currently, the price of uranium is $ 53, but if the war in Ukraine lasts, the price can go to $ 200.




Ukraine produces about 70% of the world’s neon gas exports. While neon signs are mostly antique today, they are an important part of semiconductor manufacturing. This type of neon gas needs to be upgraded to a very high level of cleanliness. Two-thirds of the gas comes from a factory in Odesa, Ukraine. Also, ships that can transport this gas are not very common and could become even rarer if someone is working in the Black Sea.

Exports of cereals and sunflower oil from Russia and Ukraine:



Dependence of Mediterranean countries on food imports from Russia and Ukraine.




China has large debts in dollars.




The Lech steel plant in Bavaria stopped steel production due to the high price of electricity. The steel plant consumes electricity as a city of 300,000 inhabitants.

The energy sector raised prices in two months of 2022 – 20.5%. Fuel oil – 51.9%, natural gas – 32.2%, gasoline – 24.8% and electricity 11.1%.




In February, the Swiss Federal Customs Administration (FCA) recorded imports of around 256.4 tons of gold, silver, and coins worth around CHF 6.9 billion. In contrast, the country’s exports amounted to about 310.0 tons of gold, silver, and coins worth CHF 6.8 billion.

FCA data also show that imports of unprocessed gold amounted to 165.56 tons worth CHF 6.7 billion. During this period, Swiss crude gold exports amounted to 121.56 tons worth CHF 6.61 billion.


Switzerland’s largest reference country in February was Uzbekistan. According to the data, Switzerland imported 29.99 tons of gold from there. Other high imports were recorded by Switzerland from the United Kingdom, from where it imported 23.69 tons of gold net, and from Peru, from where it imported 13.15 tons of gold.

The largest of Switzerland’s three major buyer countries was China in February. Switzerland exported 35.50 tons of gold to China. In addition, Switzerland delivered 32.76 tons of gold to India and 9.45 tons of gold to Hong Kong.


According to the FCA, in February this year, Switzerland also recorded an import volume of 77.75 tons of silver worth CHF 66.07 million. Exports amounted to 176.31 tons of silver worth 124.39 million Swiss francs. Peru was the country’s largest source in the second month of this year, and Switzerland imported 9.95 tons of silver from there. The largest buyer was the United States, which bought 36.41 net tons of silver from Switzerland.




DOWJ – 34,276

DAX – 14,169

S&P – 4,381

NASDAQ – 13,614





During the war in Ukraine, gold jumped to a record $ 2,070 / ounce.

Current price – 1939 $ / ounce.


Speculators are deliberately lowering gold prices to make money.


Gold Price Forecast – If you were to enter today and want to cover part of the US Federal Reserve’s gold liabilities, the price of gold would have to skyrocket. In early 2022, it was calculated that gold prices would have to rise to $ 11,090 an ounce for one-third coverage and $ 18,150 an ounce for 54% coverage.


Official gold reserves China and Russia.

In reality, China has – 40,000 tons of gold and Russia 12,000 tons.



Credit Suisse analysts predict that gold will rise to a price of $ 2,285-2,300 / ounce very soon after the speculative fall.



Silver slight decline – $ 25.34 / ounce.



Oil jumped to $ 140 / barrel, but the price returned to $ 108 / barrel.


Unthinkable, Saudi Arabia rejected the proposal of the President of the United States to increase oil production, to increase supply and calm prices, because it is not in the interest of Saudi Arabia.

This has never happened before.

Saudi Arabia has secured firm agreements with China and is freeing itself from dependence on petrodollars.



Dollar in a slight decline – 1.1026


Russian ruble

In recovery against the euro – 115.4796

In recovery against the dollar – 104.6563



Bitcoin today at – $ 40,293.

Ethereum in slight growth – $ 2,788.



Branko Dragaš

Investment banker


Market Overview