Financial Analysis – Week 08, 2021

Mar 03, 2021

Market Overview

 

financial-analysis-week-08-2021

 

Global overview

The global growth of food prices in two months is the largest since 2011.

The head of the UN for food has publicly stated that in 2021 there will be food shortages and great hunger in the world.

 

USA

Millions of Americans will continue to flee from major cities in 2021. The survey shows that the departure from cities will increase by over 20%, compared to 2020.

The federal moratorium on the eviction of those who do not pay rent is not constitutional, and now its withdrawal will follow, so tens of millions of people will be sent to the streets.

 

Central banks

Four central banks: the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of Japan, and the Central Bank of China raised their balance sheets from $ 5,000 billion in 2006 to $ 29,000 billion in 2020.

 

central-banks

 

World debts

The current world debt is $ 280 trillion. I estimate that they have grown to $ 710 trillion and that in 2030 they will amount to not 350, but 900 trillion dollars.

 

global-debts-on-track

 

Financial derivatives

When financial derivatives are added, global debt rises to over $ 2.000 trillion, my estimate is over $ 5.400 trillion.

 

global-debt

 

Money supply M1

Increased from 2005 – $ 1.3 trillion to 2021 – $ 6.8 trillion

 

ECB

The ECB has invested 1.850 billion euros in the diseased financial system to help both companies and vulnerable families.

Where do these new euros come from?

From the air.

 

Japan

Unemployment rate – 2.9%

 

USD

The USD strengthened 1.2020 against the euro and precious metals. Strong economic data from the United States, thanks to a much more aggressive subsidy policy, are crucial.

 

Oil

A slight drop to $ 63.76 / barrel is the result of an increase in production last week.

A new agreement on reducing production is expected to be reached in March in order to raise the price to a higher level.

 

Stocks

Slight growth of shares continued:

DJ – 31,378

DAX – 14,036

S&P 500 – 3,871 – slight decline

 

In the 10 months since March 2020, shares have risen by $ 24,000 billion or 30% of global GDP.

Why work, when we can print money without cover ?!

In the period 1929 – 1933 DJ fell 90%, it took 25 years to recover.

 

Earnings

In 1960, the boss earned 20 times more than the average salary of workers, 1980 – 28 times more, and in 2020 – 375 times more than the average salary of workers.

 

income

 

Gold

This week, speculators continued to trade gold-backed certificates and reduced the price of gold to $ 1,738.

Physical gold was not traded, only securities.

My advice – be patient, do not sell gold. Who didn’t buy, now is the time to buy.

The charts I presented above show what kind of financial collapse awaits us.

 

Silver

In a slight drop to – $ 26.78.

 

Russian Ruble

Unchanged: Euro – 89.4405 and Dollar – 74.3731

 

 

Branko Dragaš

Investment banker

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Market Overview