Financial Analysis – Week 09, 2021

Mar 09, 2021

Market overview





The Senate approved Biden’s $ 1 trillion aid boost.

The official data on unemployment in February – 6.2%, but real unemployment is much higher.

Help for families – $ 1,400 a month. Families with two children will receive – $ 5,600.

Since October 2020, there has been a dynamic increase in interest rates on 10-year treasuries from 0.60% to 1.50% in a short period of time.

The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) expects U.S. public debt to increase to 202% of GDP by 2051.

According to a Moody’s Analytics report, the total layoffs in February were 34,531 (79,552 in the previous month, 56,660 in the previous year). Initial applications for the unemployed rose in the reporting week from 736,000 previously (revised from 730,000) to 745,000 (estimated at 750,000).

The budget deficit is $ 2.3 trillion, which is 10.3% of GDP.

Planned economic growth rate 2021 – 3.7%.

US official debt by the end of 2021 – $ 30 trillion.

The wealth of American billionaires has grown by $ 1 trillion.



At the meeting of the National People’s Congress, China set the goal of economic growth at more than 6% (the IMF predicts 8% +). According to Prime Minister Le Keqiang, the recovery of economic activity has been taken into account.

Despite the pandemic, the country’s GDP grew by 2.3% last year, which is the only selling point for large economies until 2020.

In line with the recovering economy, the government expects a budget deficit of around 3.2% of GDP in 2021 (the US around 15% of GDP). As for consumer price inflation, the government has set itself at around 3% by 2021.



According to the first estimates of the Federal Statistical Office, federal, state, local, and social security agencies spent 158.2 billion euros more than they planned for last year.

The amount of the federal budget 2021 – 413.4 billion euros.

New borrowing for the budget – 180 billion euros.

The wealth of German billionaires grew by – 83 billion dollars.



Foreign exchange reserves amounted to $ 1,379.4 billion in February, up from $ 1,392.1 billion.



As of February 26, foreign exchange reserves increased from $ 585.8 billion to $ 589.6 billion.


Electric cars

Sales of electric vehicles (EV) in the automotive industry amounted to 3.24 million in 2020, which is 43% more than in 2019.

Elon Musk said that Tesla plans to sell 20 million EVs by 2030. That would be a huge increase, the company produced only 430,400 cars last year.



Speculators continued to lower the price of gold to $ 1,680.

A price drop of up to $ 1,620 can be expected.

The reason is the rise in interest rates on government bonds and the strengthening of the dollar, due to the aid package that is announced, but which regularly arrives in the financial system.

Those of you who are in gold possession should remain calm.

A big turnaround and a jump in prices to over $ 2,000 will follow.

Those who do not have gold should start buying now.

The time to buy is when the price is low and below actual market value.



Speculators artificially keep silver low at $ 25.23.

Demand for silver will increase, especially due to the use of silver in the production of electric cars, which use twice as much silver as cars with internal combustion.

Hybrid vehicles use 22% more silver.




Stably high:

DOVJ – 31,346

DAX – 14,356

S&P 500 – 3,821



Oil is rising. The price has passed – $ 70.51 / barrel.

OPEC refused to increase production and deliveries in April.



The largest growth of the dollar since November last year – 1.1849.

The reasons should not be sought in rapid vaccination, employment growth, and increased economic activity, as regime analysts claim, but in the hundreds of billions of dollars that are being injected into the system.


Russian ruble

The ruble is falling against the strengthening dollar – 74.1750.

Unchanged against the euro – 88.5775



Slight growth to $ 51,246.



Branko Dragaš

Investment banker


Market Overview