Financial Analysis – Week 14, 2021

Apr 14, 2021

Market Overview





The federal budget in March was in deficit of 660 billion dollars, the previous year the deficit in March amounted to 119 billion dollars.

The money is injected into the budget from the Fed.

Debt in 1981 – $ 1,000 billion, debt in 2021 – $ 28,000 billion and debt forecast for 2025 – $ 59,000 billion.

Annual debt growth 1981-2050 is 28%.

Annual GDP growth is 2-3%.

The debt system is unsustainable.

A financial meltdown will follow.


The United States is at war with China over semiconductors. They are trying to reach an agreement with Taiwan.



Biden called on Putin for an emergency meeting over Ukraine, because the Russians deployed large military troops on the borders with Ukraine.

We are waiting for Putin’s answer.

The Minister of Defense of Russia answered that it is an internal matter of Russia where he will deploy his army and that no one should interfere in internal relations.



Inflation in March was officially 3.2%, while in February it was 2.9%.

Real inflation is much higher.



Chinese imports rose 38.1% in March, causing the trade surplus to fall from $ 103.25 billion to $ 13.8 billion.

With large purchases, China is helping the recovery of the world economy.

China is testing the digital yuan, and new technologies allow the authorities to completely control the country’s financial system.



The Institute for the German Economy announced that the debt of the federal state will increase by 650 billion euros of new debt in 2021, which would lead to the total official debt of the federal state being 2.7 trillion dollars.

It is forecasted that debts will continue growing.

Debt is 75% of GDP, it is planned to fall to the allowed level by 2035 – 60%.


Central banks

Central banks compete to buy off the debt of bankrupt countries: the ECB 70% of eurozone GDP, the Fed 35.3%, the Bank of England 37.7%, and the Central Bank of Japan 129.1%



The IMF proposes to divide the entire money supply into two parts: cash and digital money.

Anyone who pays in cash would pay default interest.

Everything is being done on complete enslavement and human control.


Government bonds

The official data is that there are 18,000 billion dollars in government bonds and that interest rates range from 1.56 to 2.39%.

There will be a collapse of government bonds when interest rates rise, and central banks lose control over securities.

Advice – do not invest in government bonds.



The growth of the stock index continues:

DJ – 33,847

DAX – 15,239

S&P 500 – 4,147



After a speculative decline, gold is slowly recovering at $ 1,747 an ounce.

The Hungarian central bank bought 63 tons of gold bars and increased gold reserves to 94.5 tons.

The explanation for this big purchase is that there is great uncertainty regarding the pandemic and that the greatest security is in gold.

The Polish central bank, which already owns 228.6 tons of gold, announced the purchase of another 100 tons of gold and the transfer to the vault in Warsaw.

The intention is to increase gold from 9% to 20% of the bank’s assets.

The reasoning is that it is safest to keep reserves in gold.



Weak silver growth to $ 25.34 per ounce.



Slight growth of $ 64.67 per barrel.

Oil prices are forecasted to rise.

Russia has 6% of world oil production and 20% of gas.



The dollar fell further to 1.1969 per euro.

In the period 2000-2021. the dollar lost 84% of its value.


Russian ruble

The ruble strengthened against the dollar – 75.9663.

It also weakened against the euro – 90.8930



Significant growth to $ 64,114.


For the first time, a $ 100 billion IPO is coming out on Wall Street for Coinbase, which was founded in San Francisco in 2012, the platform has 56 million users and 6 million active users per month, enabling the purchase and sale of fifty cryptocurrencies.

Its turnover for the first quarter (Q1) 2021 was $ 1.8 billion.

Coinbase was fined $ 6.5 million, between 2015-2018, for giving false and misleading information about cryptocurrencies.



Branko Dragaš

Investment banker


Market Overview