Financial Analysis – Week 15, 2021

Apr 20, 2021

Market Overview





Last week, there were rumors that the Ministry of Finance would initiate lawsuits against money laundering institutions through cryptocurrencies.

Farmers in most states expect a major drought, which will reduce crop yields and further increase food prices.

Real economic conditions are deteriorating, thousands of small towns have gone bankrupt, unemployment is huge, but the Federal Government is still spinning that the economy is up and running and the inflated stock markets are showing all the lies of the wrong economic policy.



Production prices rose 3.6% in March.

Compared to last year, the increase is 16%.

Russia has 150,000 troops on the border with Ukraine.



The Greens, the left, and the Social Democratic Party’s plan to increase the wealth tax, which will bring in 25 billion euros a year, which is 0.3% of the national debt.

GDP declined in the Q1 of 2021 is 1.8%.

The decline in consumption in 2020 per capita amounted to 1,250 euros or a total of 104 billion euros.

The export surplus fell from 30.5 billion euros to 25.88 billion euros in the first quarter.


United Kingdom

The unemployment rate for the first quarter – 4.9%.



The trade surplus in March 2021 was +663.7 billion yen.

Exports increased by 16.1%, while import growth was 5.7%.



The Swiss banking system is five times larger than the country’s economic output.

The Swiss central bank is the largest hedge fund in the world with 1,100 billion dollars or 145% of GDP.

It is estimated that Credit Suisse alone lost 20 billion dollars in a few years.

The US government has accused the Swiss central bank of speculating in foreign exchange financial markets but is still not acting against Switzerland and Vietnam, which is behaving the same way.



Prime Minister Draghi continues his crazy borrowing policy.

Italy received ECB assistance of 200 billion euros.

Draghi is launching a strategy of the largest borrowing in the EU, to get Italy out of the crisis.

Debt will be a record 160% of GDP this year.


Draghi admits to gambling because that is the only way to save the Italian economy.

Aren’t these gambling statements insane?

Italy has grown by only 2% since joining the EU, while France has grown by 28% and Spain by 35%.



The European Central Bank analyzed the balance sheets of 65 large banks and it was determined that there is no coverage for 275 billion euros of risky assets in banks.

Last week, the ECB injected 16.3 billion euros into the financial system.



ABN Amro Bank has to pay a 480 million euro fine for violating the money laundering law.



New stock market index growth:

DJ – 34,077

DAX – 15,320

S&P 500 – 4,162



Mild recovery to $1,773 an ounce.

Gold is extremely undervalued, both in terms of basic raw materials and

towards growing debt.



Unchanged at $ 25.90 / ounce.



New growth to $ 67.76 / barrel.

The reason for growth could be found in the fall of the dollar and higher orders.



The dollar fell further to 1.2071 per euro.


Russian ruble

Slight decline against the dollar – 76.4645.

Further decline against the euro – 92.1945.



Turkey bans cryptocurrency payments.

India is preparing a ban.

USA – increasing pressure from the state on institutions that trade cryptocurrencies.

Will other countries follow the same path, to protect the monopoly of fiat money?


The crypto market fell 16% to 38% last week.

The decline is due to big speculations because many investors are investing from loans.

As long as there are new buyers, prices are inflated.

When there are no new buyers, prices fall quickly.

That is the “pyramid bank” model.



Significant drop to $ 55,262.

Dogecoin rose 220 times in a year.

In just one day on Friday, it rose 100%.

The Coinbase platform became public for the first time and its estimated capitalization of 100 billion dollars is higher than the total number of most world stock exchanges.



Branko Dragaš

Investment banker


Market Overview