Financial Analysis – Week 16, 2021

Apr 29, 2021

Market Overview




Central banks

The Bank of Japan keeps the negative interest rate unchanged at – 0.10%.

The ECB announces that loose monetary policy will continue after the pandemic.

The Fed continues to throw helicopters money because 70% of GDP is related to private spending.

Russia has doubled its interest rate by a total of 0.75%.

Russia and China have healthier economies and less indebted than the United States.




The Fed keeps low-interest rates from 0.00% – 0.25%, invests 120 billion dollars every month to support the economy, and claims that there is no inflation, i.e. the price jump is only momentary and that everything will calm down.

Biden is preparing a $ 1,800 billion education, health, and social assistance program and a $ 3,000 billion infrastructure recovery program.




Reduces the use of dollars in exports. For the first time dollar inflow 48.3%.

The tendency of general de-dollarisation.



In the first quarter of 2021, Chinese companies made a profit higher than last year by 137.3%, the previous year was minus 36.7%.

Gold imports via Hong Kong in March 2021 amounted to 21.7 t.



Deutsche Bank made a profit of 1.6 billion euros in the first quarter.

No one is talking about debts and accumulated Deutsche Bank losses.

Will the state cover all debts and losses of DB?

The labor market is growing.

The consumer climate index further declined to 8.8%.


South Korea

GDP growth in the first quarter Q1 2021 +1.6%.


United Kingdom

In the first quarter of 2021, 50% of companies recorded a decline in sales and a decline in business activities in the German-British business.



The confidence index in the manufacturing industry rose by 2.4%.



In the Europe Central Bank’s Balance sheet, total assets grew to a record 7,558 billion euros or 70.4% of GDP.

36 billion euros were printed last week.




New growth of the stock exchange indexes:

DJ – 34,279

DAX – 15,285

S&P 500 – 4,184


Shares have never had a higher value, see the chart below:




Mild recovery at $ 1,784.

Gold is extremely undervalued, both in terms of basic raw materials and towards growing debt.

If you have liquid assets, I advise buying gold.

Gold ETFs are a scam. Buy physical investment gold.

Gold price forecasts by Kevin Wadsworth:




Unchanged at $ 25.79 / ounce.

Still the low price of undervalued silver.

Silver price forecasts:




A slight drop to $ 66.91 / barrel.



The dollar fell further to 1.2132 per euro.


Russian ruble

Strengthened against the dollar to 74.8800.

Strengthened against the euro to 92.1945.


Crypto market

Turkey bans cryptocurrency payments.

From April 30, 2021. begins the ban.

Faruk Fatih Ozer, the founder of the Turkish cryptocurrency exchange Thodex, closed the crypto platform and fled to Tirana, Albania with assets of 2 billion dollars.

62 crypto brokers were arrested.

Another crypto platform, Vebitcoin, was closed, four founders were arrested, and the daily turnover was $ 60 million.



A slight drop to $ 55,012.

Bitcoin movements from October 2020:


Rapid growth without any real coverage in the economy.



Branko Dragaš

Investment banker


Market Overview