Financial Analysis – Week 17, 2021

May 07, 2021

Market Overview

 

financial-analysis-week-17-2021

 

Inflation

Growth of raw material prices in 2020 – 50%.

Price growth continues.

inflation

 

USA

The trade deficit increased in April to $ 74.4 billion.

Budget deficits are growing.

us_budget

 

Over 34% of U.S. revenue comes from the Federal Government budget.

Zombie citizens and zombie companies are being created.

Every hour $100 million is injected into the diseased system.

 

Finance Minister Janet Yellen stated that interest rates will have to rise, which led to an alarm on the stock exchange, and after a few hours when she received a reprimand from her bosses, she stated that the interest rates would not change.

That is not serious for a banana state either.

 

Russia

Real incomes in the first quarter of 2021 fell – 3.6%.

Official inflation is 5.85, while real inflation is around 15%.

Citizens raised savings of 604.3 billion rubles.

The average rate at which cash savings melt is 6.7 billion rubles a day, or 280 million rubles an hour.

 

China

In the first quarter of 2021, the NIO electric car factory recorded an increase in sales to 20,060 vehicles, which is an increase of 422.7% compared to last year.

The company is preparing to attack the European market because it has a growing demand from Europe. They are preparing to open a factory in Oslo, Norway.

In the first quarter of 2021, the Chinese economy grew by 18.3% compared to the first quarter of last year.

 

Germany

The Credit Reporting Agency expects 35,500 bankruptcies of companies this year if the state does not help them.

 

Stocks

Stock indexes remain unchanged:

DJ – 34,443

DAX – 15,267

S&P 500 – 4,184

 

Gold

Slight growth at – $ 1,793.

In 2019, China bought 60 tons of gold per month, in 2020 that was 10 tons per month, but the Central Bank of China approved large import quotas for the purchase of gold.

In May and June, China will buy 150 tons of gold.

The economy is recovering, and gold is being bought as a stabilizing value.

India announces big purchases.

India and China buy 40% of all gold purchases a year.

 

Projections of gold price movements:

gold

 

Silver

Slight growth at $26.76 / ounce.

 

Platinum

Platinum price jump by +8.90% to $1,254.

 

Oil

Slight growth to $69.29 / barrel.

 

USD

The dollar is rising slightly to 1.2022 per euro.

 

Russian ruble

Unchanged against the dollar – 74.9836.

Strengthened against the euro – 90.3160.

 

Crypto market

The largest investment fund in the world, Black Rock, announced that it is not interested in the crypto market, that they follow what is happening in that market and its investors do not invest in crypto markets, that they are more worried about climate change and rising inflation.

The crypto bubble inflates and reaches 2.264 billion dollars, with a day jump of 0.17%

 

Bitcoin

Not changed, at $ 55,398.

The Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of China spoke positively about bitcoin and its prospects. China does not allow investing in bitcoin as an asset. They wanted to regulate the domestic cryptocurrency market, and when they finish that, then they are ready to open trading for other cryptocurrencies.

The founder of the crypto investment company Mike Novogratz predicts that bitcoin will be $ 100,000 by the end of 2021 and that it will grow to $ 400,000 by 2024.

The founder of PayPal is a fan of cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, but warns the American public that a large influx of Chinese investors into Bitcoin could lead to the collapse of the dollar and undermine the American financial system.

 

 

Branko Dragaš

Investment banker

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