Financial Analysis – Week 19, 2021

May 20, 2021

Market Overview

 

financial-analysis-week-19-2021

 

USA

Weak job creation in April, only 266,000 new jobs.

Unlimited money printing.

There are growing shortages in the US market. Lack of wooden pallets for transport, boards, and nails. Trade transport and construction endangered.

There is a megadrought in the western part of the country, agriculture lacks water, which will affect the price of food.

Inflation spiraled out of control and exceeded 20%. The growing fear of hyperinflation.

Real inflation.

 

Due to the cyber-attack on the pipeline in the eastern part of the country, over 10,000 gas stations were left without gasoline, there was a huge panic, queues were waiting for gasoline, citizens took gasoline in bags and endangered safety, so the state had to intervene to ban gasoline filling in bags.

 

FED interest rates remain unchanged in the range of 0% – 0.25%.

Movement of interest rates.

 

ECB

$ 29 billion was invested last week.

The balance sheet a record 7.615 billion euros.

 

Russia

Russia’s central bank is fleeing from the dollar to gold reserves.

 

Switzerland

Interest on a loan of 15 years – 1.1%.

It is a good business to take a loan for a house of 1 million francs, have an annual mortgage of 11,000 francs, and rent out the house so that you achieve a triple yield per year.

 

EU

Official statistics show that consumer prices rose by 0.6% per month.

Unfortunately, official statistics falsify the data.

GDP declined in the first quarter of 2021 is 0.6%.

There is a growing imbalance of financial liquidity between the central countries of the EU and the periphery countries, so the money of savers flows from the periphery to the central countries and thus worsens the liquidity of countries on the periphery, which then requires greater ECB intervention.

 

China

The interest rate on loans up to one year is 3.85%, and on five years – 4.65%.

 

Germany

Exports to China rose by 20% in the first quarter to 4.9 billion euros, while in the US it fell by 7.4% and the EU fell by 2.6%.

The fall in GDP in the first quarter was 1.7%.

The Bundesbank owes 1,100 billion euros or 32% of Germany’s GDP in the name of other EU citizen’s savings.

 

Japan

Exports rose 38% in April, imports rose 12.8%.

 

Stocks

Stock indexes unchanged:

DJI – 34,039

DAX – 15.194

S&P 500 – 4,109

 

In the 1997-2021 period, world GDP grew by 170%, while DJI grew – 430%.

The bubble has inflated, but central banks continue to inflate it with new money.

 

Gold

Continued growth to $ 1,871 / ounce.

Gold is expected to rise further to $ 1,900.

 

Silver

Slight increase to 27, 48 $ / ounce.

Great prospects for silver growth remain open.

 

Copper

Copper price unchanged $ 10,350 / ton.

 

Oil

A slight drop to $ 65.36 / barrel.

Iran has appeared on the world market with its oil.

 

USD

The dollar is falling to 1.2201 per euro.

The movement of the dollar in half a century:

 

The movement of the dollar towards gold in 20 years.

 

Russian ruble

Unchanged against the dollar – 73.9535

Unchanged against the euro – 90, 0565

 

Bitcoin

It further fell to $ 36,219.

The total capitalization of the crypto market fell from 2,500 billion dollars to 1,700 billion dollars.

The Central Bank of China has confirmed that digital currencies must not be used for payment purposes because they are not real currencies, many currencies have lost value.

 

 

Branko Dragaš

Investment banker

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Market Overview