Financial Analysis – Week 30, 2021

Aug 04, 2021

Market Overview




The World

According to purchasing power parity, share in world GDP:  China 20%,  USA 15%  and  EU 14%



The Senate adopts a $ 1.2 trillion infrastructure aid program from the Fed’s new printed dollars.


Biden introduced new regulations that support the American industry with the “Buy American Program”. The intention is to support suppliers to buy more American components for production. It is now 55%, they intend to raise it to 60%, while by 2029 it would reach 75%.


Alzheimer’s disease affects 6 million people in the United States and affects 500,000 people each year. Great controversy over the new drug, which costs $ 56,000 a year, the ICER Institute believes that it is an inflated price and that the drug should not cost more than $ 8,400 a year. Several investigative proceedings have been initiated.


The ASPEN Institute claims that 15 million Americans are late with the payment of rent and that the debt has risen to 20 billion dollars. Over 3.6 million Americans will have to move out in the next two months, because the law from September 2020, when the moratorium on the eviction of those who do not pay rents due to KOVID, ceases to be valid.


The Fed and Congress have spent thousands of billions of euros to lift the population out of poverty and have failed. Everything was wrong. The economic policy of throwing money out of helicopters proved to be completely meaningless.


Optimism in the economy is disappearing due to rising inflation. House prices rose 23% last year and have continued to rise this year. Hay bales for livestock feed have risen over 20% in the last few months, while used cars have risen over 45%.

The Fed governor and strictly controlled media continue to say that inflation is temporary and will return to within 2% per year.

The governor of the Fed is a complete financial dilettante and closes his eyes to the fire of inflation, which got out of control, that is, more precisely, by inserting new printed dollars, at least 120 billion every month, the governor of the Fed extinguishes the fire of inflation by adding petrodollars.


Employment before the pandemic was 152 million, today only 145 million Americans.

Before the pandemic, 95 million Americans were never employed, today over 101 million.

The real unemployment rate is above 25%.

Before the pandemic, the debt was 20,000 billion dollars, today the debt is official – 28,400 billion dollars.

The Fed’s balance before the pandemic was 4,000 billion dollars, today 8,400 billion dollars.

The money supply of M2 before the pandemic was 15,000 billion dollars, today – 20,000 billion dollars.

Over 54% of Americans responded in July that the economy was in extremely poor shape.

Is the United States facing national financial suicide?



What does the Fed do?

In one night, he took $ 1.039 billion in deposit from 82 banks and companies in repo operations and paid interest of more than 0%, which is – 0.05%. or $ 519.5 million paid for deposits.



Annual price growth of 3.1%.



Retail grew 10.9% year on year in June.

The unemployment rate fell to 4.8%.

Real wages rose 3.3% in May.

The Russian economy grew in the period 2008-2019 only 8.8% or annually – 0.88%, which is 3.5 times lower than the growing world economy.

In the same period, the US economy grew by 16.2% and the Chinese economy by 101.0%

The main problem remains the high export of oil and gas raw materials, which in 2019 account for 57% of exports, which shows that Russia is using its resources inefficiently.

In the years of its collapse in 1979-1990, the USSR had a higher annual rate of 1.5% than current Russia – 0.88% per year.

Over 20.5 million people live in poverty.

The price of Russian gas jumped to $ 520 / 1,000 cubic meters



The ECB bought government bonds, corporate bonds and other 88 billion euros worth of securities in July.

Thus, through the PEPP program, the ECB accumulated securities worth – 1,200 billion euros.



GDP growth in the second quarter Q2 +2.0%.

The unemployment rate fell to 7.7% in June.



Foreign exchange reserves in June – 3.214 billion dollars.

Chinese gold funds – 62.64 million ounces.

Chinese shares fell by 23%.

China is turning Shanghai into an experimental laboratory for the internationalization of the national digital currency – the renminbi.



The unemployment rate fell to -2.9% in June.



IFO Institute surveyed 2,700 industrial companies – 64% of companies have problems because they lack production materials, over 72% of electronic device manufacturers complained about the lack of materials and 70% of machine manufacturers.


South Africa

In South Africa, prices have risen significantly recently. The rand, one of the strongest currencies in the developing market this year, has recently lost value. If at first, it looked like an economic recovery driven by global demand for raw materials, the outlook is deteriorating significantly. Lockdown restrictions apply due to the third wave of the corona. There were also violent protests in connection with the arrest of former President Jakob Zuma.

Experts expect the central bank to keep stable interest rates low. In May, monetary authorities assumed a GDP growth of 4.2 percent this year. Some experts estimate that the unrest could cost 0.4 percentage points of growth.



Stock market indexes continued to rise high:

DOWJ – 34,838

DAX – 15.568

S&P 500 – 4,387


Stock market balloon still takes place.



Gold unchanged – $ 1,812 an ounce.

During this period, gold jumped to $ 1,833, but paper speculators knocked it down again.


It is 50 years since Richard Nixon, on August 15, 1971, temporarily, as he announced, abolished the gold standard in order to protect the dollar.

This temporary situation continues today.


The dollar has lost 98% of its value against gold to date



Unchanged at 25,31 $ / ounce.



The price fell to $ 73.24 / barrel.

Analysts explain that the reason for the drop in demand for oil in China, the USA and Australia is mostly due to the Delta virus and the new closures.



The dollar continued to fall to – 1.1874


Russian ruble

The ruble continued to grow against the dollar – 73.3124

The ruble continued to grow against the euro – 86.7280



In slight growth to $ 39,194.

Malaysian police arrested and punished 8 bitcoin brokers for huge illegal electricity consumption, seized and destroyed 1,069 computers.

Investment analysts David Tica and Guggenheim fund manager Scott Minerd predict that bitcoin will fall to $ 15,000 by the end of the year.



Branko Dragaš

Investment banker


Market Overview