Financial Analysis – Week 35-36, 2021

Sep 19, 2021

Market Overview

 

financial-analysis-week-35-36-2021

 

The World

Since August, foreign exchange reserves have been in Japan (+ $ 37.9 billion), Canada (+ $ 16.4 billion), Russia (+ $ 20.0 billion), Singapore (+ $ 10.3 billion), and France (+ 23.3 billion EUR), Switzerland (+6 billion CHF), Poland (+6.3 billion USD), New Zealand (+5 billion NZD), India (+16.6 billion USD), Thailand (+8 billion USD), South Korea (+5.3 billion USD). Data for the eurozone from August will be available from September 15.

 

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) stated that food prices rose by + 32.9% in one year.

 

Stock market

Raw material price growth:

 

 

USA

Stagflation

The bond market trades 85% with negative interest rates due to high inflation.

The Fed says inflation is temporary.

Total madness!

 

Big shortages in stores are a novelty for the citizens of America.

Shortages of goods and increasingly empty shelves will become an integral part of the crisis.

There are over 9 million jobs that no one will apply for.

Social assistance for the unemployed in the pandemic and the throwing of freshly printed dollars from helicopters destroyed the labor market.

There are no truck drivers, port workers, waiters, and all other physical workers.

Biden’s decision to lay off everyone in health care, who will not be vaccinated, will lead to the collapse of health care.

52% of citizens in the United States have been vaccinated, but 72% of those who have not been vaccinated do not want to be vaccinated, even if they are unemployed.

In the pre-election campaign, Biden said that there would be no mandatory vaccinations, and now he advocates mandatory vaccination.

Biden’s administration implements tyranny and destroys the elementary freedoms of citizens.

 

Losses of human capital:

 

The ratio of the number of vacancies against the number of unemployed.

America has 20 million people who have been convicted of a crime and have problems getting a job again after serving their sentences.

Real Estate – The price of real estate is 27% higher than at the time of the inflated mortgage bubble in 2006 after which on August 19, 2007, there was a collapse in real estate prices.

 

FED

Since 2008 alone, the Fed has created $ 5.200 billion.

Currently, the Fed has created liquidity of 6,100 billion dollars.

 

Russia

The central bank increased the reference interest rate from 6.50% to 6.75%.

A record trade surplus in July of $ 23.19 billion.

GDP growing by 10.5%.

 

China

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, coal consumption in the period 2019-2021. increased by 4.1%, while electricity production increased by 7.4%

Foreign exchange reserves fell by $ 4 billion to $ 3,232.

 

Germany

The first 5% have as much wealth as 55% of citizens.

Prices have risen compared to last year officially 3.9%.

The unofficial estimate is about 10%.

 

India

Industrial production increased by 11.5%.

 

United Kingdom

GDP grew compared to last year + 7.5%.

 

Stocks

DOWJ – 34,798

DAX – 15,763

S&P – 4,482

 

According to the analyzes of the Mises Economic Institute, the prices of all shares are inflated by over 30%, seen in the ratio of the capitalization of the stock exchange to GDP. Shares would have to fall over 60% to return to their real value.

Will the decline in shares start in October 2021 ?!

 

Gold

Price dropped to $ 1,796 / ounce.

The mysterious US public company PALANTIR Technologies, which collects and analyzes vast amounts of data for the CIA, other secret services, such as NCA, FBI, and the CDC state administration, works directly for the US government, which forecasts political and economic developments, in August 2021 bought gold bars for $ 50.7 million to protect itself from the upcoming Black Swan. The name “Black Swan” is used for the impending collapse of the financial markets.

That is why the prices of gold are falling, so that rich companies can buy.

 

Silver

The price of silver dropped to $ 23.75 / ounce.

 

Oil

The new jump in oil prices, currently at $ 73.60 / barrel.

 

USD

Stable for the whole week at 1.1775

 

Russian ruble

Unchanged against the euro – 86.4345

Unchanged against the dollar – 73.1370

 

Bitcoin

Bitcoin fell earlier this week to $ 45,910.

El Salvador from September 07, 2021 introduced Bitcoin as a legal tender.

 

 

Branko Dragaš

Investment banker

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