Financial Analysis – Week 40, 2020

Oct 06, 2020

Market Overview




The stock market does not reflect the real state of the economy. The printing of the American dollar and the euro without cover continues. According to my estimates, since the beginning of the pandemic, February 2020, 11 trillion US dollars and 6,2 trillion euros have been printed.

The printing of the fake dollar and the euro led to the stock market indexes being inflated. Hence the Dow Jones returned to a record 28,835 as did the DAX at 13,125.

The balloon inflates dangerously.

Balloons are expected to burst and the stock market to collapse.

In the United States, 61 million people have asked for unemployment benefits since the beginning of the pandemic. Last week alone, 734,000 people registered for unemployment.

The fall in GDP in the second quarter was 31.9%, which is a historical record.

Inflation exceeded 10%.

The official American state debt has exceeded 27 trillion dollars, while the budget deficit will be at the record high of 3,5 trillion dollars.

The total debts of the state, companies and citizens, according to my estimates, exceeded 411 trillion dollars.

Over 50 million people are waiting in lines for public kitchens and food banks.

Interest rates remained low and unchanged.

No matter who wins the presidential election, an economic collapse will follow. Democrats and Republicans are pursuing the same, wrong economic policy, which is based on printing dollars without cover.

Social problems are growing. The top 1% of the richest possess a capital of $ 35 trillion, while 50% of the population has $ 7 trillion.

The social collapse of the American society is inevitable.

The dollar fell again to 1.1812 against the euro last week. I expect the dollar to fall further.

Oil ranges between $ 40-43 a barrel for weeks.

It is expected that there will be no major oscillations in the coming weeks.

Gold prices fluctuate and range between 1,866 and 1922 dollars an ounce.

I expect the gold price to jump to $ 2,000 by the end of the year and to continue its rising to $ 2,500 an ounce in 2021.

We have entered the third wave of the corona crisis and that is a sure proof that there is no economic recovery and that the economic parameters will be worse.

Economic advice to all who read my economic forecasts, reduce costs, act rationally, avoid large gatherings, find new jobs and try to find reserve shelters in the villages, where you can organize food production for your own needs on 15 acres. It is important that you do not depend on the retail chains and to go out in the nature escaping from the cages of the city apartments.

Instead of antidepressants, read Dostoevsky, Thomas Mann, Gogol, Balzac and Tolstoy.
Reading strengthens the spirit and sharpens thoughts.


Branko Dragaš
Investment banker


Market Overview