Financial Analysis – Week 42, 2021

Oct 29, 2021

Market Overview

 

financial-analysis-week-42-2021

 

The World

Economic bombs can destroy over-indebted states.

Potential bombs can appear anywhere. At this point, just a few:

  • The collapse of dollar (and other currencies)
  • Stock market crash
  • Outstanding debts, bond collapse (eg Evergrande)
  • Liquidity crisis (when money creation stops or has no effect)
  • Inflation leading to hyperinflation

 

USA

The distribution of American soldiers in the world and the large costs of 730 billion dollars for the army – 11% of the budget.

They have 173,000 troops in 159 countries.

 

The annual budget is $ 7,000 billion, revenue is $ 3,800 billion, whereas $ 3,200 billion is missing or 46% of total spending

 

FED

Inflation is rising and spiraling out of control, while the Fed still believes it is all transient.

 

 

Official inflation growth is 5.4%.

 

 

Decrease of 38% in purchasing power since 2000.

 

 

The total unemployment in the US is 7,674,000 people, 6,000,000 people are allegedly employed, while 6,000,000 vacant jobs are looking for workers.

According to the research, 40% of workers want to leave work in the next six months, without the possibility of finding a new job.

 

Russia

Inflation in September – 10.58%.

61% of citizens in the survey see the biggest problem in inflation.

Fruits and vegetables went up by between 42% and 61%

 

China

The real estate market in China has been severely shaken. The state of China is calling on the billionaire, the head of Evergrande, to guarantee his private wealth.

Increased demand for gold this year 813 t or 48.4%.

 

India

India is secretly buying gold and is currently raising its gold reserves to 724.24 tons.

 

Poland

Poland’s gold reserves are 230 tons, and they are preparing to buy another 100 tons.

 

Stocks

Unchanged high share price:

DOWJ – 35,443

DAX – 15,676

S&P – 4,554

 

Borrowing is growing to gamble on the stock exchanges.

 

 

Gold

If the highest price of gold of $ 850, reached in 1980, were adjusted to real inflation, that highest price would be $ 21,900 today. So gold is – at today’s $ 1,800 gold price – seriously undervalued and unpopular and is likely to soon reflect the true value of the dollar. With the inevitable collapse of the monetary system, the preservation of wealth will be crucial. Measured in terms of the collapse of fiat money, gold and silver can reach unimaginable heights.

Speculators are lowering the price of gold with gold futures because they are playing on increasing interest rates in the coming years.

Underestimated gold price at – $ 1798 / ounce

 

Silver

Underestimated value of silver at – $ 24.08 / ounce

 

Oil

Throughout the week, the price has been falling slightly to $ 82.76 / barrel.

The reason is that Iran has started supplying oil to China and there has been an increase in the supply of oil on the market.

 

USD

Too strong for the whole week at 1.1586

 

Russian ruble

It continued to strengthen against the euro – 81.5809

It continued to strengthen against the dollar – 70.2989

 

Bitcoin

The decline in bitcoin stabilized this week at – $ 60,933.

Nigeria introduced the first cryptocurrency – NAIRA.

 

 

Branko Dragaš

Investment banker

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Market Overview