Financial Analysis – Week 47, 2021

Nov 28, 2021

Market Overview

 

financial-analysis-week-47-2021

 

The World

The United States supports 75% of the world’s dictators with military weapons, training, and money. Out of 57 non-democratic countries, 42 receive weapons, training, and money.

 

USA

Why is inflation rising?

Large printing of dollars without cover leads to an increase in demand in relation to the supply of goods.

 

 

With services, that gap is much smaller.

 

 

Workforce

Millions of people did not return to work because they received helicopter money and were not stimulated to return to work, thus the number of employees did not reach the period before the pandemic.

Observed in the long run, we could see that in 2020 there was a big drop in employment and that there is still no recovery, which leads to a great demand for manual labor.

 

Last week, one maid at a hotel in New York received $ 30 an hour.

 

FED

Biden proposed a second term for Governor Jerome Powell.

The current policy of printing the dollar without cover continues.

Real inflation is over 15%.

The Fed must not raise interest rates, because that would lead to the collapse of the state.

Low-interest rates affect people’s savings in banks.

 

Russia

At the end of October, foreign exchange reserves increased from $ 614.12 to $ 624.24 billion.

The central bank bought gold so that gold reserves increased from $ 128.66 to $ 132.86 billion.

Over 55% of companies do not believe in the economic policy of the Government.

Over 87% of companies stated that it is extremely difficult to run a business in Russia.

 

China

The Shanghai Stock Exchange delivered 1,205 tons of gold in 2020, and 1,393 tons in the first ten months of 2021.

Chinese gold imports through Hong Kong jumped by 56% in October, compared to September.

Significant decline in Alibaba stock prices since the beginning of the year and growth of JD.com

 

Germany

In the third quarter, GDP grew by 1.7%, mostly due to the growth of private consumption of -6.2%.

Exports and investment in equipment fell, due to supply bottlenecks.

The economy is expected to slow down and there will be no growth in the fourth quarter.

 

Kazakhstan

The Central Bank of Kazakhstan has sold over 2.5 tons of physical gold to citizens since 2017.

 

Stocks

Stock markets are falling.

European stock exchanges are in the biggest decline, especially tourism companies and airlines.

 

DOWJ – 34,849

DAX – 15.411

S&P – 4,603

 

TESLA waives German state subsidies to produce batteries.

Allianz is investing 1 billion euros in the production of optical fibers in Austria.

Lufthansa shares fell 11.42% due to the outbreak of a new virus in South Africa B1.1.529

 

Gold

Gold has been speculated all week and recovered to $ 1,810 / ounce.

 

Silver

A slight drop in the value of silver to $ 23.62 / ounce.

It is estimated that silver could reach $ 50 / ounce next year.

 

Oil

For the whole week, the price dropped to $ 76.59 / barrel.

The Biden administration is making desperate moves and intervening in the market with its oil from the reserves of 50 million barrels, to calm the price.

Biden asked OPEC to increase oil production, but OPEC refused.

Putin stated that the price of oil goes to $ 100 / barrel.

 

USD

Strengthening continued for the entire week at 1.1274

 

Russian ruble

It continued to fall against the euro – 85.4012

It continued to fall against the dollar – 75.7573

 

Bitcoin

Bitcoin fell all week to $ 55,593.

One of the largest Islamic organizations in Indonesia is asking for the banning of cryptocurrencies because they are not according to Sharia law.

 

 

Branko Dragaš

Investment banker

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Market Overview