Financial Analysis – Week 48, 2020

Dec 01, 2020

Market Overview





While we wait for December 14, 2020, when the Federal Election Commission will announce who is the winner of the presidential election and who is the president of the United States, the inauguration is set on January 20, 2021. Let’s take a look at what is happening in real life:

I have already written that both presidents in their presidential debates did not talk about the key problems in American society – debts.

Trump is the president who made the biggest debt in one term.

As official indebtedness reached 28,000 billion dollars, Trump has increased US debt by 8,000 billion dollars during his mandate.

Obama increased US debt by $ 10,000 billion for two terms.

But that is not all. There are also hiding debts.

From August and September 2019, when liquidity collapsed on Wall Street, until today, 11 trillion dollars have been injected, and that was not enough to satisfy the greed of Wall Street brokers.

According to my estimates, the total debts of the USA – the state, corporate, and citizen, have grown to 411 trillion dollars.

How will they repay?

None of the officials is talking about it.

Nor do they care.

There was no talk of debts in the presidential debates, there was no talk because they have no solutions.

In other words, the only solution is to inject new, fake dollars.

At this moment, Wall Street expects that 3,000 billion dollars will be injected immediately, due to the endangered liquidity of the banks.

Biden has promised that if he becomes president, he will print another $ 7,000 billion for infrastructure.

What about other sectors?

During that time, the citizens of America are finding it increasingly difficult to live.

The economic crisis and Covid-19 affect most Americans who live out of monthly wages.

In July, young people aged 18 to 29 answered in a survey, 26.6 million of them, which is 52% of this population, that they have to live with their parents and cannot become economically independent, which is 2.6 million more than in February this year.

According to the research of the Aspen Institute, over 40 million people are late with the payment of rents and mortgages, and they expect foreclosures. Moving the deadlines for paying debts means nothing to them since they have no job and no income.

Half of the households in Arkansas, Nevada, and Florida did not pay rent and mortgages.

This is the first time this has happened in recent American history.

Where will these people live? On the streets?

On Thanksgiving, 39 million Americans had no food.

Over 70 million have applied for unemployment benefits.

Over 21% of small businesses closed in early November.

Disney is laying off 32,000 employees.

What is everyone waiting for?

New dollars from the Fed.


Stock market

The Dow Jones index hit an all-time high of 30,640.

All other economic parameters are declining.

Four companies came out with the vaccine and the brokers started to inflate the stock market.

I think dozens of vaccine companies will appear soon.

States are introducing mandatory vaccination, beating those who protest with fascist violence so that the vaccine market will have almost 8 billion users.

How many times will the vaccine be given? How often? How much does one vaccine cost?

Multiply that by billions of users.

And here it is, a new market for brokers.

Jeff Bezos is increasing his net asset value in a pandemic by $ 321 million a day.

Not satisfied, he greedily longs for the 1,000 billion market capitalization of his company.



Gold fell to $ 1,776 on Monday. The reason for the decline is the speculation of stockbrokers and expectations of growth in risky investments in the vaccine.

My advice to all investors is to raise their savings and invest in gold, over a 5 year period.

This will protect your property.

I do not advise those who trade gold daily and want to make money.

Therefore, stay calm, gold will have a big growth because it is compared to the growing debts.

The monetary system is failing.



The dollar continues to fall.

For the first time, in a moment, he crossed 1,120.

The growth of the stock market stopped the larger fall of the dollar.



The strengthening of the euro against the dollar is a major problem for the EU economy.

Debts are piling up more and more.

I estimate that the debts in the EU zone have exceeded 200,000 billion euros.

The ECB is increasingly saying that if the eurozone breaks down, the digital euro will be introduced.

Will it solve the accumulated problems?

It will not.

It is just a new weight to an increasingly poor, unemployed, and desperately frightened European citizen.

Deutsche Bank is in debt, when we include financial derivatives, around 120,000 billion euros and it will destroy the finances of Germany and the EU.

EU finance ministers have agreed on a financial umbrella for the euro, which will be applied from 2022 to 2024.

These people have completely lost their minds, the EU is declining and needs help immediately, without any delay.

Ministers concluded that the financial situation is not critical.



The proposed budget for 2021 plans new borrowing of 180 billion euros.



The number of suicides in October was 2153, while 2,087 people died from Covid-19 in 2020.



After the agreement between Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the Emirates on oil deliveries for 2021, there was a jump in the price to 48 dollars, and that is the expected jump at the end of the business year.



After two weeks of growth, due to PayPal’s decision to accept bitcoins for payment, bitcoin reached almost its record from 2017, when it grew to $ 20,000. Now, it dropped to the current $ 16,400.

Since the beginning of October, bitcoin has doubled.

Due to the large oscillation, investments are very risky.

But there are always investors with a gambling attitude.



Branko Dragaš

Investment banker


Market Overview