Financial Analysis – Week 52, 2020

Dec 29, 2020

Market Overview




US Politics

Trump gave up the blockade of the budget and the package of financial incentives. Congress has adopted the financial injection of $ 900 billion. The package implies that adults receive $ 600 in aid, while Trump asked for $ 2,000 per person.

Due to the Covid-19 crisis, Congress announced that it would release 2.7 trillion dollars of financial aid in the spring.

Budget support was voted at $ 1.4 trillion.

The legislative package was written on 5,593 pages, which the congressmen had to read in one day, to adopt the law and thus enable the financing of the empty budget without hindrance.

Who can read 5,593 pages in a few hours?

No one.

Representative parliamentary democracy is a fraud of the citizens.

Congressmen have annual salaries of 130,000 dollars and decide whether the citizens will receive $ 600 to survive.

Congress is facing a decision to raise the level of aid to 2,000 dollars per adult.

There is no public debate about how dangerous these incentives are for the growth of state debts.

Citizens are narcotized, scared, and indignant, demanding increasing doses of counterfeit dollars.

Is the US on the path to hyperinflation?


The economic cost of the pandemic

Over 100,000 companies have been permanently closed since the beginning of the pandemic.

Tent cities are appearing all over the country because poor citizens cannot pay rents and installments of housing loans.

1,027 store chains closed, while 30 retail chains declared bankruptcy.

The National Restaurant Association has announced that 50% of restaurants will declare bankruptcy in the next few months if they do not open immediately.

The middle class is failing at a rapid pace.

The queues for food are getting bigger and longer.

Homelessness increases with geometric progression.


Mutated COVID

Super COVID has appeared in the southern part of Great Britain.

Covid 501.B2 broke out of control in South Africa, because at the beginning of December, 3,000 people fell ill every day, and today that number rises to 9,500 people.



The ruble is falling slightly this week.

Euro against ruble – 90.6490.

Dollar against the ruble – 74.0510.

The Central Bank of Russia continues to intervene by selling the currency, to stop the fall of the ruble.

From March to December 28, 2020, the Central Bank sold currencies in the amount of – 1,659 billion rubles.

The currency is sold from the National Welfare Fund.



Inflation is forecast to grow by 2% in 2021, as it was negative in the second half of 2020, as consumers postponed purchases due to the pandemic.



The Dow Jones has been above 30,000 for weeks, today – 30,562.

DAX is constantly growing, today a record – 13,866.

S&P is high at – 3,756.

Stock exchanges are waiting for financial assistance packages, which will be reflected in the growth of all indexes on stock exchanges.



Gold continues to grow – $ 1,880.

Gold is expected to grow in 2021 – one economic analyst with a chart proves that next year the price will be – 2,300 dollars, while another one expects that it will rise to – 2,794 dollars.

If the balloons burst on the stock exchanges, then the price of gold will explode.

Silver is growing significantly, but a huge jump is expected in the spring of 2021.



The dollar continues to fall against the euro – 1.2223.

Forecasts are increasingly realistic that in 2021, a further fall of the dollar is expected.



The package of financial aid, voted by the Congress, and the fall of the dollar, brought an increase in the price of oil in the range from 50.29 to 54.46 dollars per barrel.

Expectations for a revival in production will push the price of oil even higher.



The price of wheat has been growing throughout December, from 205.00 to 211.75 euros per ton.

Forecasts are that the price of wheat in 2021 will rise.

Russia has limited wheat exports in 2021.



Growth continues at – $ 26,810.

Will bitcoin reach $ 400,000?

Everything is possible in a world where the real economy is being destroyed and where all economic parameters are meaningless.

Bitcoin’s growth forecast is from $ 90,000 to $ 400,000.


Why will Bitcoin grow?

Inflation is coming because the Central Banks continue to print dollars and euros without any cover.

Bitcoin is getting more expensive because the monetary system is inflated.

The growth of Bitcoin was supported by the fact that in August 2020, the company MicroStrategy invested from the reserves of $ 500 million, half – $ 250 million in the purchase of bitcoin to protect itself from inflation.

But they didn’t stop there. In September 2020, they invested another 175 million dollars and recently another 50 million dollars in bitcoin.



Electric car manufacturer Tesla increased the value of its shares in 2020 by 690%. What are the further predictions? Owner Musk wrote an internal letter to employees at the beginning of the month and indicated that there would be a significant drop in the value of shares if the company fails to meet the expectations of investors’ profits.

Goldman Sachs analysts believe that the shares will continue to grow and will reach, today’s price is at $ 661.77, a record price of $ 780.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley estimate that the target price is $ 540.

JP Morgan analysts believe that the stock price is currently inflated and that its real value is $ 90.

General Motors sells 6 million vehicles a year, while Tesla sells only 500,000 electric cars.

VW plans to launch the electric car Aeroliner in early 2025 with a production of 300,000 cars a year for the European market.

Due to the lack of semiconductors, VW must reduce production in its factories in the world in 2021.



Branko Dragaš

Investment banker


Market Overview