Financial Analysis, January 27 – February 04, 2022

Feb 06, 2022

Market Overview




The World


Official data on world unemployment January 2022:


GDP growth forecasts for 2022:



Rising food prices:






Trends in 2021:



The foreign trade deficit hit a record $ 100.9 billion in December.

Deficit development 2001-2021:



301,000 jobs has been lost in the private sector in January 2022.

In December 2021, there were 11 million vacancies, no workers.

Forecasts are that growth in the first quarter of 2022 will be only 0.1%.




The official national debt exceeded 30,000 billion dollars.




Movement of interest rates in the period 1972-2022, constant decline:



There is no room for interest rate growth because the liquidity of indebted people will be endangered, who cannot pay the current low-interest rates.

The range between real and nominal interest rates is increasing, which is best seen in the chart:




Legislative processes in the EU take at least a year, which makes the whole system inefficient and bureaucratic.

The revision of the current fiscal rules can come into force only at the end of 2023.

The purpose of the audit is to establish a new system that would allow EU governments to start a large debt relief.

This means that the budget deficit must not exceed 3% and indebtedness 60% of GDP.

Where was that achieved?


These are again empty stories of incompetent and corrupt EU politicians, who must not admit that the EU has gone bankrupt and that such a system can no longer survive.



Price growth in January 2022 – 5.1.

Inflation is heating up and the ECB has no idea what to do.

The ECB refuses to raise interest rates and still keeps the key interest rate at 0%.

At a meeting on Thursday, the ECB’s Council confirmed that it was pursuing an expansionary policy of printing the euro without cover.


United Kingdom

Price growth in 2021:




The United States rejected Russia’s proposal for European security and resolving the conflict in Ukraine and USA sent their proposals.

Russia rejected the US proposals and demanded that NATO return to its positions in 1997 and no longer endanger Russia’s national interests.

Russia has sent 30,000 troops and weapons to Belarus and 130,000 troops are on the Ukrainian border.

Ukraine has sent 120,000 troops to the border with Donbas.

The United States is transferring 8,500 troops to Europe.

Will there be a war between NATO and Russia?

It depends on how crazy the Pentagon hawks are.

Putin is patiently waiting for their mistake.



Xi Jinping-Putin meeting and agreement on new relations in the world and creation of conditions for security and prosperity of the world.

Demand for gold in 2021 – 1,121 t, an increase of +36.5%.



The government plans to repay the last part of the debt to the IMF of 1.8 billion euros.

That would pay off the total debt to the IMF from 2010 of 35 billion euros.

Yields on ten-year Greek bonds are 2%.



Industrial production fell 1.0% in December.

Stock market bubble and real estate bubble.



Germany depends on Russian raw materials: oil – 34%, coal – 45%, and gas – 53%.

According to a survey in January 2022, over 50% of Germans are afraid of inflation, while 44% admitted that they could not maintain the current standard of living.

Price growth in January 2022 – 4.9%



Energy prices for households in December were 24.1 percent higher than a year earlier but remained unchanged from November. Heating oil cost 44.3% more than a year ago, but 5.0% less than in November. Fuel was around 3 times more expensive than at the end of 2020, but it was slightly cheaper than in the previous month, according to the Energy Price Index (EPI) calculated by the Austrian Energy Agency.

Diesel was 33.9% more expensive than the previous year, gasoline by 31.3%. Compared to November, however, prices fell by 1.3 and 1.4 percent, respectively. By comparison, general consumer prices (CPIs) rose 4.3% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month.

Natural gas prices also rose particularly sharply within a year, by 27.7%. Electricity is 12.4% more expensive, pellets 10.6%, and firewood 9.7%. Central heating rose by only 3.4%, less than the increase in CPI.




Stock markets panic over big falls.

A 26.4% drop in Facebook shares in one day is a Wall Street record.


DOWJ – 34,537

DAX – 15,454

S&P – 4,408

NASDAQ – 13,539


Stock exchanges are overvalued by almost 200%.

The stock market is expected to fall by 40-50%.


The balloon is inflated.

In the period 1987-2021 alone, 32,000 billion dollars were invested in the stock market.


Historical parallels:





Gold falling to – $ 1807.

Movement of real interest rates and gold:



World Gold Stocks February 2022:




Silver unchanged – $ 22.48 / ounce.



Rising to a record $ 91.15 / barrel.

If war breaks out in Ukraine, the oil will go to $ 120 / barrel.

A tanker with 2 million barrels of oil exploded off the coast of Nigeria.



The dollar is falling – 1.1447


Russian ruble

In a big decline against the euro – 89.1355

In a big drop against the dollar – 79.0255



The drastic decline in cryptocurrencies continues.

A further drop is expected, bitcoin to $ 30,000.

Bitcoin today at – $ 37,790.

Ethereum in decline – $ 2,550.



Branko Dragaš

Investment banker


Market Overview