Financial Analysis – Week 50, 2021

Dec 25, 2021

Market Overview




The World


Debts are accumulating more and more. Government bonds have increased since 2007 from $ 20,000 billion to $ 50,000 billion in 2021.



The world banking system is over-indebted, and that bubble must burst because the assets are 10 to 30 times bigger than the banks’ capital.

Over 12 million hectares of arable land in the world are lost due to droughts in 100 countries and endanger 1.5 billion people.




The total capitalization of the American stock market in relation to the total size of the economy is now an incredible 270%.

For comparison, the Dotcom crisis 2000-2001 was 188% during the crisis.

The stock market balloon is so inflated that can burst anytime.



For the first time in a year 01.07.2020 – 01.07.2021, the population had the smallest growth of 392,665, with a natural increase of 148,043 and international migration – 244,622.

Rising inflation in 2021 will cost US citizens $ 3,500.




High inflation is a consequence of loose monetary policy, low-interest rates, and throwing helicopter money, hence some people received more money than needed.



Price growth for the first 11 months of 2021.





High energy costs affect the economy, raise inflation, and affect the personal standard of citizens.

Nominal, real interest rates and inflation.

Negative interest rates cannot be a driver of economic development.



The reduction of interest rates by the Fed did not solve the problem in the economy, because the debts accumulated with geometric progression.



If the Fed raises interest rates by 0.25% at each meeting next year, interest rates could rise to 1.25% at the end of the year.

Inflation will continue to rise, and real interest rates will be negative -3%.

The Fed would have to stop buying assets and raise the key interest rate by 300 index points just to bring real interest rates to 0.

Does Governor Powell have the courage to do that? – He doesn’t.

What will happen when interest rates increase, with those who are in debt: the state, companies, and citizens, who cannot repay loans and pay the current low-interest rates? Over 70% of Americans will not be able to survive.



The Fed is in an extremely difficult position and is the main culprit for the crazy printing of dollars without cover.

If the Fed raises the interest rate by 1%, that is a burden for the indebted state of 300 billion dollars a year.



The ECB has announced that it will reduce the purchase of government bonds, that it will not increase the interest rate, that the European economy is recovering, and that inflation is within 2%.

It is unbelievable how blind the ECB officials are and how much they will not face the rising inflation, they are not doing anything and that will take revenge on the economy and the citizens of the EU.


United Kingdom

The Bank of England raised interest rates from 0.1% to 0.25%.

Inflation over 6%.



This week, the Lira sank by 15.4%, a total of 54.7% since the beginning of the year.

The central bank is intervening for the fifth time this month from foreign exchange reserves.

Big problem short-term debt of $ 125 billion.

Bond yields rose to 21.4%.

Shares down 8.5%.

Which country is next?




Dissatisfied deputies are asking the Central Bank why it exports gold produced in Russia and why they do not deposit gold in the Central Bank’s reserves.

For the period January-September 2021, 218.79 tons of gold were exported, and in October the export was at a record – 32.9 tons.

Over 92% of the gold goes to London.

As Russian tycoons like to work and live in London, then it is clear that they are buying gold, the price of which is underestimated, because they expect a big jump in the price of gold.

The price of gas in the EU, after jumping to $ 2,000 / cubic meter on the last day of this week, dropped to $ 1,300 / cubic meter.

Inflation trends in four weeks.





The electric car producer BID, financed by the American billionaire Warren Buffett, in 2021 produced – 509,838 cars and the plan for 2022 is to produce – 1.2 million cars.

Thus, they would reach the production of TESLA and become the main competitor.

The real estate market is inflated to 62,000 billion dollars and has 6,000 billion dollars of debts, which cannot be repaid.


North Korea

Kim Jong Un‘s totalitarian system is in big economic trouble.

Growth rates by year:

  • 2017 ………  – 3.5%
  • 2018 ………  + 0.4%
  • 2019 ………  – 4.1%
  • 2020 ………  – 4.5%

To solve the problem of not having enough money, the state has organized 6,000 young hackers who deal with cybercrime, and last year they managed to steal $ 2.3 billion from accounts around the world.

I believe that the Great Leader is proud to contribute to the destruction of hateful capitalism through robberies.



Real estate prices in the third quarter of 2021 increased by 19.1%.

Real estate prices are the highest in the last 400 years.




The industry is having problems with a shortage of raw materials. In December, 84% of industrial companies stated that they had production delays due to the procurement of primary products and raw materials.



Stock markets are growing slightly.

DOWJ – 35,848

DAX – 15,740

S&P – 4,716


TESLA company


Musk continued to sell shares of TESLA so that in this period he sold 583,600 shares for 528 million dollars. It has sold a total of 13.5 million shares for $ 14.1 billion so far.

He asked his Twitter followers to vote whether he should sell 10% of the company or 17 million of his shares and when the followers voted, he sold. He has 3.5 million shares left to sell.

The essence of this game of “democracy” is that Musk must finally pay taxes, over 11 billion dollars this year, because he has not paid taxes at all for years, which proves my thesis that IT oligarchs are privileged and develop with the help and to the detriment of the state.

Elon Musk has a capital of 236 billion dollars, and he amassed enormous wealth during the pandemic, while the American and world economy was collapsing and while the majority of the population was getting poorer.


Mask has another 17% stake in TESLA.


TESLA produced 2020 – 499,550 cars.

Estimation for 2021 – 900,000 cars.

Plan to sell 20 million cars a year by 2030.




The Central Bank of Ireland bought 2 tons of gold, and when asked by journalists why they bought gold, the bank’s officials did not want to comment on anything.

Why would they comment? One who understands buys investment gold. Who does not understand, keeps the fiat money in the bank account.

Gold futures are betting on the price of gold and lowering prices in the short term in order to make money, therefore underestimating the price of gold.



We estimate that $ 600 billion is traded in paper gold and that trade is speculatively lowering the price of gold. That’s about 11,300 tons of gold in paper form.

Basel 3, the Settlement Bank, intends to prevent further trade in gold securities and this will lead to a real rise in the price of gold.

The total amount of gold in the world, which has been mined, has reached the amount of almost 200,000 tons, but the monetary gold is 35,244 tons.



Underestimated price falling to $ 22.86 / ounce.



Increased to $ 76.21 / barrel.

U.S. crude oil inventories fell to a minimum last week.



In a slight decline to 1.1335


Russian ruble

Unchanged against the euro – 83.0455

Unchanged against the dollar – 73.3514




Bitcoin’s market share fell from 70% to 40%. Its current market cap is $ 880 billion. The presence of Ethereum (ETH), which has a market cap of 445 billion dollars, is growing. Compared to December 2020, December 2021 saw an increase in bitcoin of 200%, while the growth of ETH was 650%.

Bitcoin’s index has risen 1,200% since 2019, while S&P has risen just 90%.

Bloomberg analysts expect bitcoin on the way to $ 100,000.

In El Salvador, bitcoin has become a means of payment.

JP Morgan analysts expect bitcoin to lose its primacy among cryptocurrencies in the next five years and give preference to Etherium.

Bitcoin growth for the whole week at – $ 51,094.

Ethereum on the rise – $ 4,099.

The madness of cryptocurrencies continues – the Polygon (MATIC) had a growth of 14,000% this year, but the record holder of the Axie Infinity (AXS) is a growth of 19,000%.


An important question, which arises from practice, is how to inherit cryptocurrency?

The average age of cryptocurrency investors is 40, and most do not care what if something happens to them.

Cryptocurrencies are different from everything that is inherited because it has nothing to do with the state or the bank, but the heirs must have a cryptographic key with a code. If this is not the case, the heirs will not have access to the property.

1,500 coins are lost every day because cryptocurrency owners forgot the password or lost the key.

Tip, you need to trust someone else in the family, whom you will train how to manage your cryptocurrencies.



Branko Dragaš

Investment banker


Market Overview